Serbian Neutrality?

Between a rock and a hard place, the current geopolitical situation leaves Serbia with a complicated problem to solve. Balancing between the west and the east however is only illusory.

Not even a week ago the whole of Europe was forced to take a stance on Ukraine. Countries that nowadays form the extended western community were quick to find a unified response. Although the process of sanctioning Russia might have seemed slow at first, in the end a way was found and Russia is now facing one of the harshest set of sanctions ever levered against her. the European map of sanctions however still has a few blank spots. Only two countries in the western Balkans have not still announced their intention to join the EU and US led sanction bloc - Bosnia and Hercegovina, and Serbia.

The Bosnian case is way easier to comprehend, once the intricacies of the internal political processes of Bosnia and Hercegovina are taken into account. Gridlock in Bosnian reaction was to be expected, since gridlocks of all sorts are not uncommon within B&H. The head of the Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik does not seem interested in adopting any sanctions against Russia, and thus he can effectively block Bosnia and Hercegovina from adopting any. And with how the Republika Srpska and Russia are intertwined this is appears to be a stance that Banja Luka is not going to change. Such a position leaves a good set of cards to play against the recoil the sanctions are going to have in Europe. The buyout of Sberbank by RS authorities can serve as a good example here.

Serbia on the other hand was expected by many to take openly pro-Russian position, because of that the press conference held by Aleksandar Vučić last Friday came as a surprise to some. It should not have. Serbia is the open door to the Balkans for Russia, those two countries cooperate closely, and even the general public in Serbia tends to be Russophilic to such an extend that it can confuse visitors from other parts of the region. Although the omnipresent ‘Kosovo is Serbia / Crimea is Russia‘ graffiti might paint an entirely different picture, the current position of the official Belgrade is nothing but a continuation of previous foreign policy.

Vučić’s decision not to sanction Russia was not the part that surprised people. The part of the president’s speech that mentioned territorial integrity so many times that a drinking game could be designed around it did. Few Czech reporters were puzzled by it and it even led to them seeing a glimpse of hope in the speech. ‘Look, even Serbia is turning her back on Russia’ one happily exclaimed in a now deleted tweet. The issue with Vučić’s speech was that even if it might have seemed to address the current issues, it essentially commented on the question of Kosovo’s independence. Reassurance of Ukrainian territorial integrity serves a purpose of doing the same for the one of Serbia, since the strongest card that Serbia can play is adherence to the 1975 Helsinki Accords. This specific issue should not negatively impact the Russo-Serbian relations, Moscow seems to be well aware of the pickle Belgrade has found itself in. Such an assurance even came in this morning. This partly in-partly out stance does not signal any concrete reorientation to the west.

The west, however, is not so understanding of Serbia’s need to carefully balance between the opposed sides. As it would appear now, the European Union wants Belgrade to pick a side, or rather, switch sides. And it does not end here, Serbian position is getting more complicated as we speak. Talks about ousting Russia from the United Nations has sparked real concerns about the future possibilities of regaining Kosovo. Timing too is working against Vučić, halfhearted position is not helping him in the rundown to the April elections. Pro-western stance cannot be expected to help him much with the cosmopolitan citizenry of Belgrade and Novi Sad. Fence-sitting on the other hand might offend the pro-Russian sentiments of the more conservative part of Serbia that is more likely to show support to Vučić.

There are even more problems waiting at the border between Kosovo and Serbia. Prishtina is seeing a good window of opportunity to stress its independent position. Blockage of uncontrolled roads, request to become a fully fledged member of NATO serve as an indicator of future developments.

The complexity of Vučić’s position is only accentuated by the nature of the Friday’s press conference. Shortly before the president addressed the Serbian public, he held a meeting with the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, his tone throughout the conference was rather solemn. Vučić is aware that the fence he is sitting on is not the strongest one. We will see how the events unfold further, more commentary is to follow.

Cover image from: www.stopfake.org